Saturday, February 12, 2011

More places where the bubble ended

To an impressive degree the housing bubble has ended. There are a few areas like Southern California where people have been rich enough to prolong the pain, but in general it really seems like the housing bubble is over. Here are some more places the housing bubble has ended:

Las Vegas home prices:
Las Vegas Metro Zillow Home Value Index
Las Vegas Metro Home Values - Interactive chart From 134k in 2001, up to 305k at peak, down to 126k today. That makes it 40k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Reno home prices:
Reno Zillow Home Value Index
From 148k in 2001, up to 338k at peak, down to 158k today. That makes it 24k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Phoenix home prices:
Phoenix Zillow Home Value Index
From 99k in 2001, up to 193k at peak, down to 126k today. That makes it about 4k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Denver home prices:
Denver Zillow Home Value Index
From 191k in 2001, up to 228k at peak, down to 199k today. That makes it 36k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices. It also means Denver managed to never have a housing bubble.

Portland home prices:
Portland Metro Zillow Home Value Index
From 166k in 2001, up to 295k at peak, down to 210k today. That makes it 6k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Seattle home prices:
Seattle Zillow Home Value Index
From 274k in 2001, up to 465k at peak, down to 344k today. That makes it 7k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Minneapolis home prices:
Minneapolis Zillow Home Value Index
From 142k in 2001, up to 223k at peak, down to 162k today. That makes it 12k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Chicago home prices:
Chicago Zillow Home Value Index
From 165k in 2001, up to 265k at peak, down to 177k today. That makes it 26k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Miami Home prices:
Miami Zillow Home Value Index
From 135k in 2001, up to 360k at peak, down to 172k today. That makes it 6k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Orlando home prices:
Orlando Zillow Home Value Index
From 108k in 2001, up to 233k at peak, down to 88k today. A full 45k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Atlanta home prices:
Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index
From 152k in 2001, up to 203k at peak, down to 128k today. A whopping 59k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Raleigh home prices:
Raleigh Zillow Home Value Index
From 151k in 2001, up to 198k at peak, down to 171k today. That makes it 15k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Pittsburgh home prices:
Pittsburgh Zillow Home Value Index
From 57k in 2001, up to 79k today. That makes it 9k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

Cleveland home prices:
Cleveland Zillow Home Value Index
From 71k in 2001, up to 92k at peak, down to 54k today. That makes it 33k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.

I am almost starting to believe the real estate industry when they claim it is a good time to buy. In a great deal of the country it really seems to be. Almost as interesting is the fact few people seem to have caught up to this information. For example if you look at the comments section of this article, almost no one seems to believe we are near bottom. That, along with overbuilding and the huge number of young people crushed under student loans, makes me think we will likely overshoot the bottom in many areas. Buying homes, and renting them, might actually start to make some financial sense for a change.

However, any way I look at it I don't come to the same conclusion in Southern California. Home prices are just too high compared to what they were a decade ago, without any good reason for them to be so. Maybe another two or three years of people leaving for these cheaper cities will change that though.

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